Surging productivity meets shrinking workforce in Fla, Jax hits holding pattern (Courtesy of the Jacksonville Business Journal) — Over the past two decades, the state’s manufacturing output has soared 109%, yet payrolls have quietly eroded, shedding more than 30,000 positions.
Machines are doing what workers once did — and faster — leaving companies able to churn out more product with leaner crews.
Nowhere is that paradox more visible than in Jacksonville, where manufacturers report being squeezed from both ends: production demands are holding steady even as workforces shrink, supply chains slow and tariffs push costs skyward.
University of North Florida economists say the city’s industrial sector has slipped into “a cautious holding pattern” — waiting out backlogs, holding prices as long as they can and bracing for a possible downturn. Federal incentives are trying to lure high-tech manufacturing jobs back to U.S. soil, and Jacksonville is chasing that prize through massive semiconductor investments.
But industry leaders warn that technology and automation have permanently reset the labor equation, meaning the jobs lost to the last manufacturing revolution may never fully return.
“A cautious holding pattern” in Jacksonville
As demand for manufactured products remains steady in Jacksonville, companies are seeing shrinking employment and backlogs amid mounting pressure from tariffs, according to a report from the University of North Florida.
Businesses are readying to bear continuing headwinds from a manufacturing slowdown, according to a monthly Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey conducted by the UNF Coggin College of Business.
“Tariffs are pushing input costs higher, and it’s tough to hold prices steady,” one anonymous firm wrote in response to the survey.
Data from the most recent report showed the local economy was in “a cautious holding pattern” as supplier deliveries have slowed, and export orders and inventory stabilize, said Coggin Interim Dean Albert Loh, who analyzed the survey.
Tariffs are hiking up the price of raw materials. Meanwhile, customers’ hesitancy to commit to large projects and weakening construction activity are weighing on demand.
Semiconductor investments
Bringing chip manufacturing back to the U.S. was a focus of the Biden Administration, which attempted to revive the sector through federal programs such as the CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Those programs invested billions of dollars in high-tech manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and clean energy in an effort to reshore those jobs.
Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has imposed tariffs on nations across the world as part of a strategy to revitalize the industry and persuade American chip manufacturers to relocate production back to the U.S.
Advocates often point to the sector’s above-average wages – jobs in high-tech manufacturing often come with an average salary of about $70,000 a year – as an incentive to rebuild the industry domestically.
In the background, Jacksonville is betting big on domestic semiconductor activity.
In collaboration with the University of Florida, Jacksonville may usher in the beginning phases of the Florida Semiconductor Institute by end-of-year, which would act as a third anchor to the institute overall.
“The key is that we’d like to be able to not be reliant on foreign sources,” FSI Director David Arnold said in a recent conversation with the Business Journal, “whether that’s for raw materials or the making of the chips themselves.”
Additionally, the budding UF institute is attracting the attention of aerospace company Intuitive Machines, which is working with the Jacksonville Aviation Authority in an effort to gain an orbital reentry license and begin operations at Cecil Spaceport.
Intuitive Machines is using its vehicle the Zephyr to collaborate with Space Forge for semiconductor manufacturing in space.
Florida’s manufacturing output surges, but jobs lag behind
But it might be too little, too late. Technology and automation means factory floors now can function with far fewer employees than they could in past decades, ETQ reports.
“While reshoring may help reverse some losses, it is unlikely to restore manufacturing employment to its former scale,” the organization reported.
The U.S. lost about 4.5 million manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2024 as businesses moved production overseas and invested in automation
But, some parts of the industry have been more resilient than others.
Nationally, verticals with the biggest employment losses include computer and electronic product manufacturing (786,000 jobs), printing and related support activities (452,000), apparel (421,000) and machinery manufacturing (350,000).
However, food and beverage, and tobacco product manufacturing have gained jobs since 2000. That is because those products tend to be made locally and are tied to agricultural supply chains.
Despite the trend, Florida leaders are pursuing strategies to strengthen the state’s manufacturing sector. According to the Florida Chamber of Commerce, manufacturing has the potential to have a greater economic impact than even the tourism, agriculture or transportation industries.
Central Florida is home to more than 4,100 manufacturing businesses that employ roughly 102,000 people. Aviation, aerospace, defense and automotive components manufacturers are among the key industries in the region, with several new facilities in the pipeline, drawn to the area’s business-friendly policies and potential labor pool.
Florida’s manufacturing sector seeks skilled talent amid automation
While automation and technology means factories can function with fewer employees, the South Florida Manufacturers Association reports there is still a critical need for high-skilled technical talent in the industry.
“We are laser-focused on building that workforce through training, education and industry partnerships,” the SFMA told a sister publication. “The challenge isn’t a lack of opportunity, it’s filling these increasingly specialized roles, and that’s where SFMA is investing its efforts.”