Redwire optimistic about gains despite failing to meet analysts’ expectations

Redwire optimistic about gains despite failing to meet analysts’ expectations (Courtesy of the Jacksonville Daily Record) — Redwire Corp.’s stock dropped March 11 after reporting fourth-quarter revenue below analysts’ forecasts.

However, the Jacksonville-based space technology company painted an optimistic outlook for 2025 and at least one analyst agrees.

“4Q24 results just ok, but ’25 guide and longer term outlook worth getting exciting about,” H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck said in a research note.

Redwire’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 9.6% to $69.6 million, below the consensus analysts’ forecast of about $75 million.

But for all of 2024, revenue rose 24.7% to $304.1 million.

Helped by a pending acquisition, Redwire is projecting revenue to reach $535 million to $605 million this year.

In Redwire’s conference call with analysts, CEO Peter Cannito said the company successfully executed its growth strategy in 2024.

“Redwire executed on programs for more than 100 customers, with greater than 85% of revenues coming from our many government and marquee customers around the world, showcasing our strong revenue diversity,” he said.

“In addition, Redwire announced the launch of more than 70 products and solutions on 15 launches during the year, and that doesn’t include product launches that did not get announced due to customer confidentiality.”

Redwire also contributed to two recent high-profile space missions.

“Two lunar landers with Redwire cameras onboard headed to the moon: Firefly’s Blue Ghost, which landed on the lunar surface on March 2nd, 2025, and Intuitive Machine’s IM-2, which landed on the lunar surface on March 6th, 2025,” Cannito said.

Cannito said Redwire submitted $4.1 billion in bids for other projects in 2024, although he couldn’t predict how many of those proposals will be accepted.

“However, we now have a pipeline of bids that could result in a substantial increase in backlog if we land some of these larger opportunities,” he said.

Redwire’s growth this year includes a $925 million deal announced in January to acquire Edge Autonomy, which broadens the company’s business into uncrewed airborne systems.

Redwire’s stock had been soaring in recent months because of that acquisition and the election of President Donald Trump, who is expected to expand U.S. space programs.

But the stock fell as much as $1.82 to $9.44 March 11 after the yearend report.

Buck thinks investors should be looking ahead positively about Redwire. He maintained a “buy” rating with a $26 price target for the stock.

“While we recognize some disappointment in 4Q24 results, it’s a mistake to be too backward looking as the company has positioned, through recent M&A, to be a leading player in both space and defense going forward,” he said.

“However, we believe most investors are forward looking and should come away optimistic, based on the company’s projections,” Buck said.